Oak forest carbon and water simulations:Model intercomparisons and evaluations against independent data

Models represent our primary method for integration of small-scale, process-level phenomena into a comprehensive description of forest-stand or ecosystem function. They also represent a key method for testing hypotheses about the response of forest ecosystems to multiple changing environmental conditions. This paper describes the evaluation of 13 stand-level models varying in their spatial, mechanistic, and temporal complexity for their ability to capture intra- and interannual components of the water and carbon cycle for an upland, oak-dominated forest of eastern Tennessee. Comparisons between model simulations and observations were conducted for hourly, daily, and annual time steps. Data for the comparisons were obtained from a wide range of methods including: eddy covariance, sapflow, chamber-based soil respiration, biometric estimates of stand-level net primary production and growth, and soil water content by time or frequency domain reflectometry. Response surfaces of carbon and water flux as a function of environmental drivers, and a variety of goodness-of-fit statistics (bias, absolute bias, and model efficiency) were used to judge model performance. A single model did not consistently perform the best at all time steps or for all variables considered. Intermodel comparisons showed good agreement for water cycle fluxes, but considerable disagreement among models for predicted carbon fluxes. The mean of all model outputs, however, was nearly always the best fit to the observations. Not surprisingly, models missing key forest components or processes, such as roots or modeled soil water content, were unable to provide accurate predictions of ecosystem responses to short-term drought phenomenon. Nevertheless, an inability to correctly capture short-term physiological processes under drought was not necessarily an indicator of poor annual water and carbon budget simulations. This is possible because droughts in the subject ecosystem were of short duration and therefore had a small cumulative impact. Models using hourly time steps and detailed mechanistic processes, and having a realistic spatial representation of the forest ecosystem provided the best predictions of observed data. Predictive ability of all models deteriorated under drought conditions, suggesting that further work is needed to evaluate and improve ecosystem model performance under unusual conditions, such as drought, that are a common focus of environmental change discussions

The future of evapotranspiration : global requirements for ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources

The fate of the terrestrial biosphere is highly uncertain given recent and projected changes in climate. This is especially acute for impacts associated with changes in drought frequency and intensity on the distribution and timing of water availability. The development of effective adaptation strategies for these emerging threats to food and water security are compromised by limitations in our understanding of how natural and managed ecosystems are responding to changing hydrological and climatological regimes. This information gap is exacerbated by insufficient monitoring capabilities from local to global scales. Here, we describe how evapotranspiration (ET) represents the key variable in linking ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources, and highlight both the outstanding science and applications questions and the actions, especially from a space-based perspective, necessary to advance them

Protecting climate with forests

Policies for climate mitigation on land rarely acknowledge biophysical factors, such as reflectivity, evaporation, and surface roughness. Yet such factors can alter temperatures much more than carbon sequestration does, and often in a conflicting way. We outline a framework for examining biophysical factors in mitigation policies and provide some best-practice recommendations based on that framework. Tropical projects-avoided deforestation, forest restoration, and afforestation-provide the greatest climate value, because carbon storage and biophysics align to cool the Earth. In contrast, the climate benefits of carbon storage are often counteracted in boreal and other snow-covered regions, where darker trees trap more heat than snow does. Managers can increase the climate benefit of some forest projects by using more reflective and deciduous species and through urban forestry projects that reduce energy use. Ignoring biophysical interactions could result in millions of dollars being invested in some mitigation projects that provide little climate benefit or, worse, are counter-productive

On the use of MODIS EVI to assess gross primary productivity of North American ecosystems

[1] Carbon flux models based on light use efficiency (LUE), such as the MOD17 algorithm, have proved difficult to parameterize because of uncertainties in the LUE term, which is usually estimated from meteorological variables available only at large spatial scales. In search of simpler models based entirely on remote‐sensing data, we examined direct relationships between the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) measured at nine eddy covariance flux tower sites across North America. When data from the winter period of inactive photosynthesis were excluded, the overall relationship between EVI and tower GPP was better than that between MOD17 GPP and tower GPP. However, the EVI/GPP relationships vary between sites. Correlations between EVI and GPP were generally greater for deciduous than for evergreen sites. However, this correlation declined substantially only for sites with the smallest seasonal variation in EVI, suggesting that this relationship can be used for all but the most evergreen sites. Within sites dominated by either evergreen or deciduous species, seasonal variation in EVI was best explained by the severity of summer drought. Our results demonstrate that EVI alone can provide estimates of GPP that are as good as, if not better than, current versions of the MOD17 algorithm for many sites during the active period of photosynthesis. Preliminary data suggest that inclusion of other remote‐sensing products in addition to EVI, such as the MODIS land surface temperature (LST), may result in more robust models of carbon balance based entirely on remote‐sensing data

Exploring the importance of within-canopy spatial temperature variation on transpiration predictions

Models seldom consider the effect of leaf-level biochemical acclimation to temperature when scaling forest water use. Therefore, the dependence of transpiration on temperature acclimation was investigated at the within-crown scale in climatically contrasting genotypes of Acer rubrum L., cv. October Glory (OG) and Summer Red (SR). The effects of temperature acclimation on intracanopy gradients in transpiration over a range of realistic forest growth temperatures were also assessed by simulation. Physiological parameters were applied, with or without adjustment for temperature acclimation, to account for transpiration responses to growth temperature. Both types of parameterization were scaled up to stand transpiration (expressed per unit leaf area) with an individual tree model (MAESTRA) to assess how transpiration might be affected by spatial and temporal distributions of foliage properties. The MAESTRA model performed well, but its reproducibility was dependent on physiological parameters acclimated to daytime temperature. Concordance correlation coefficients between measured and predicted transpiration were higher (0.95 and 0.98 versus 0.87 and 0.96) when model parameters reflected acclimated growth temperature. In response to temperature increases, the southern genotype (SR) transpiration responded more than the northern (OG). Conditions of elevated long-term temperature acclimation further separate their transpiration differences. Results demonstrate the importance of accounting for leaf-level physiological adjustments that are sensitive to microclimate changes and the use of provenance-, ecotype-, and/or genotype-specific parameter sets, two components likely to improve the accuracy of site-level and ecosystem-level estimates of transpiration flux

Looking deeper into the soil : biophysical controls and seasonal lags of soil CO2 production and efflux

Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Applications 20 (2010): 1569–1582, doi:10.1890/09-0693.1.We seek to understand how biophysical factors such as soil temperature (Ts), soil moisture (θ), and gross primary production (GPP) influence CO2 fluxes across terrestrial ecosystems. Recent advancements in automated measurements and remote-sensing approaches have provided time series in which lags and relationships among variables can be explored. The purpose of this study is to present new applications of continuous measurements of soil CO2 efflux (F0) and soil CO2 concentrations measurements. Here we explore how variation in Ts, θ, and GPP (derived from NASA's moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer [MODIS]) influence F0 and soil CO2 production (Ps). We focused on seasonal variation and used continuous measurements at a daily timescale across four vegetation types at 13 study sites to quantify: (1) differences in seasonal lags between soil CO2 fluxes and Ts, θ, and GPP and (2) interactions and relationships between CO2 fluxes with Ts, θ, and GPP. Mean annual Ts did not explain annual F0 and Ps among vegetation types, but GPP explained 73% and 30% of the variation, respectively. We found evidence that lags between soil CO2 fluxes and Ts or GPP provide insights into the role of plant phenology and information relevant about possible timing of controls of autotrophic and heterotrophic processes. The influences of biophysical factors that regulate daily F0 and Ps are different among vegetation types, but GPP is a dominant variable for explaining soil CO2 fluxes. The emergence of long-term automated soil CO2 flux measurement networks provides a unique opportunity for extended investigations into F0 and Ps processes in the near future.Data collection was possible thanks to NASA, the NSF Center for Embedded Networked Sensing (CCR-0120778), DOE (DE-FG02-03ER63638), CONACyT, UCMEXUS, NSF (EF-0410408), NSF-LTER, KAKENHI (12878089 and 13480150), the Academy of Finland (213093), the Austrian Science Fund (FWF, P18756-B16), the Kearney Foundation, the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences (CFCAS), and the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC). R. Vargas was supported by grant DEB-0639235 during the preparation of this manuscript

Complexity in water and carbon dioxide fluxes following rain pulses in an African savanna

The idea that many processes in arid and semi-arid ecosystems are dormant until activated by a pulse of rainfall, and then decay from a maximum rate as the soil dries, is widely used as a conceptual and mathematical model, but has rarely been evaluated with data. This paper examines soil water, evapotranspiration (ET), and net ecosystem CO2 exchange measured for 5 years at an eddy covariance tower sited in an Acacia–Combretum savanna near Skukuza in the Kruger National Park, South Africa. The analysis characterizes ecosystem flux responses to discrete rain events and evaluates the skill of increasingly complex “pulse models”. Rainfall pulses exert strong control over ecosystem-scale water and CO2 fluxes at this site, but the simplest pulse models do a poor job of characterizing the dynamics of the response. Successful models need to include the time lag between the wetting event and the process peak, which differ for evaporation, photosynthesis and respiration. Adding further complexity, the time lag depends on the prior duration and degree of water stress. ET response is well characterized by a linear function of potential ET and a logistic function of profile-total soil water content, with remaining seasonal variation correlating with vegetation phenological dynamics (leaf area). A 1- to 3-day lag to maximal ET following wetting is a source of hysteresis in the ET response to soil water. Respiration responds to wetting within days, while photosynthesis takes a week or longer to reach its peak if the rainfall was preceded by a long dry spell. Both processes exhibit nonlinear functional responses that vary seasonally. We conclude that a more mechanistic approach than simple pulse modeling is needed to represent daily ecosystem C processes in semiarid savannas